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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers improving collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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